NL First Half Wills and Won'ts

As I mentioned before, I am going to give you a few of my predictions for the National League first half. Let me remind you that these are all completely out on a limb, and if I'm right then I consider myself a genius. So without further ado...

National League Wills:

First Half

Catchers: Brian McCann will hit over .320.

1st Basemen: Albert Pujols will yet again lead all one-baggers in average at .356.

2nd Basemen: Rickie Weeks will get hurt...OK, that's too easy. Dan Uggla will hit over .275.

3rd Basemen: David Wright will be the first half MVP for the entire league.

Shortstops: Troy Tulowitzki will lead all shortstops in HR's with 18.

Outfielders: Hunter Pence will make the All-Star team, and will be hitting over .305.

Pitchers: Ricky Nolasco will surprise no one and still have 12 first half wins.

National League Won'ts:

First Half

Catchers: Geovany Soto won't hit 10 HR's. (and Bengie Molina won't lead any catchers in steals)

1st Basemen: Prince Fielder won't break 14 home runs.

2nd Basemen: Chase Utley won't lead all 2nd basemen in HR's.

3rd Basemen: Chipper Jones won't be healthy. And in limited time, won't hit .364 either.

Shortstops: Miguel Tejada won't hit .260.

Outfielders: Adam Dunn won't have over 16 HR's, but he will have 6X that many strikeouts.

Pitchers: Like always, Chris Young won't make more than half his scheduled starts.

Until next time,

Peace, Love, and Fantasy

2009 Baseball AL First Half Wills and Won'ts

I believe Abraham Lincoln said it best: "There are only two things certain in life; death and taxes." Well, before fantasy baseball was around at least. Here are some predictions that I have for Fantasy/MLB First Halves.

American League Wills:

First Half

Catchers: Mike Napoli will lead all AL catchers in HR's with 12.

1st Basemen: Miguel Cabrera will lead all AL 1st basemen in average at a .363 clip.

2nd Basemen: Robinson Cano will lead all AL 2nd basemen with a .331 average.

3rd Basemen: Chone Figgins will lead all AL 3rd basemen with 28 steals.

Shortstops: Derek Jeter will be the All-Star starting shortstop, even though 3 AL shortstops will have better numbers than him (M. Young, J. Peralta, M. Aviles)

Outfielders: Jacoby Ellsbury will lead all AL OF's in steals, and Matt Holliday will lead all AL OF's in HR's and batting average.

Pitchers: Jon Lester will be the best AL starting pitcher.

American League Won'ts:

First Half

Catchers: Victor Martinez won't have the most HR's at catcher on his own team.

1st Basemen: Justin Morneau won't break the 10 HR mark.

2nd Basemen: Howie Kendrick won't get hurt.

3rd Basemen: Evan Longoria won't hit .250.

Shortstops: They all won't live up to their statistics from last year.

Outfielders: Carlos Quentin won't repeat his first half from last year, and fortunately for B.J. Upton, neither will he.

Pitchers: Brian Fuentes won't lead his own team in saves, Jose Arredondo will.

Hope you enjoyed these First Half predictions. Stay tuned for my NL version of the same.

Until next time,

Peace, Love, and Fantasy

The Problem with Wins

Y Young races are all about wins. Did his team make it to the playoffs, and did he win enough games so he deserved to win this outstanding award?  Well fortunately for us, wins aren't everything in fantasy baseball.  In fact in a typical rotisserie league, 5x5, it is only 1 category. Therefore a good starting pitcher on a bad team is good for 3 out of your 5 pitching categories, which is equivalent to 1st basemen like Carlos Delgado or Derrek Lee.  Early mid-round picks right?  So what is the infatuation with wins?  Nobody complains that Delgado is a great 3 category player, so why do we claim that pitchers on bad teams are undeniably worse than lesser pitchers luckily on better teams?

Here are some quick names of good, underestimated pitchers on bad teams:

Matt Cain, SF:  Fits this bill to a T.  This will be his breakout year, and he will get more wins than he has averaged the past few years.  He will put up numbers consistent with pitchers drafted at least 4 rounds higher due to a little stat that starts with W.  

Felix Hernandez, SEA:  Do not draft this man any lower because he had less wins.  Simple as that.  He is gonna be great, and it will start this year, still with no run support.

Zack Greinke, KC:  Yes, he is obviously not forgotten.  But he is deemed worse than other pitchers who he is much more talented than.  Expect very good peripherals with a potential low win record due to the inept offense of the Kansas City Royals.

Overvalued due to wins:

Joe Saunders, LAA:  Yes, he is just not that good.

Mark Buehrle, ChiSox:  Ditto.  But at least he works quick, because if he didn't, it would be almost unbearable to watch him go every 5th day.

Fantasy Baseball Busts

Fantasy experts insist that any player that was not known to be "good" and has a good year will most likely be a bust in the following season. How tough is it to assume Ryan Ludwick will not hit .300 as he was never a .300 hitter in the minor leagues? Kevin Youkilis has never shown that kind of power, so they assume it will decrease. Too easy.

I will bring a few names to your attention that will not perform as well as their draft order may bring.

Vladimir Guerrero, LAA: I was one of his biggest fans during his stay in Montreal. What has changed? Well he has completely stopped running, and he is nearing a total breakdown. It's sad to see one of this era's best hitters going down the drain, but it's inevitable. His 4-5 round draft pick will not pay the dividends where they should, with an endless supply of players I would prefer to have at that spot.

Alex Rios, TOR: Well, I used to like him as a fantasy player, except every year he disappoints. I guess it's hard for me to consider him a bust because I don't think he's ever been that good. Last year was supposed to be his breakout year, and he failed. He is still drafted in the 5th round? Is this a joke? He had 3 homeruns in the first half of last season. It doesn't matter if you're in a rotisserie league or head-to-head, 3 homeruns is going to kill the production out of an outfield spot where you should have 15-20 jacks through the first half.

Rickie Weeks, MIL: Potential, whatever. Every year he is drafted as the 8th 2nd baseman taken and never pays off. This is the year that hopefully people will learn. Yes, he is talented, but he should be hitting near the bottom of a stacked Brewer lineup seeing as he is truly a .250 hitter. Don't reach for this guy, especially with players like Kelly Johnson going after him. In fact, check out the Giants 2nd baseman position and see how comes out as the winner. If it is Emmanuel Burriss, look at him as being a potential Rafael Furcal type of hitter in the Majors.

Bobby Jenks, ChiSox: You can draft him as the 5th best closer. Go right ahead. Every year there are 3 stud closers coming in that actually make their potential or stats from the previous year. Unfortunately, Papelbon, Rivera and Nathan have already closed the books for the past 3 years and the next 3 years. This doesn't bode well for Jenks. He has become increasingly less effective, and this will probably be the year he bloats (blows?) up completely.

Jake's Bust pick of the year:

Mark Teixeira, NYY: It kills me to put that symbol after his name. NYY. Why does that mean his fantasy production will decrease? Well, we all know the first month he won't be good. That is a given, but it is also manageable. It also doesn't bode well that he is never a good first half player. But above all, the big stage in New York will take a toll on him, especially with A-Roid out. Prediction: .278, 96 runs, 27 home runs, 106 RBI. Not horrendous, but you're getting this from a 2nd round pick? You can get better from Aramis Ramirez in the 5-6 range.

Until next time,
Peace, Love, and Fantasy