Potential Fantasy Pickups

Nyjer Morgan, WAS: Ever since he has been traded to the Nats, he has been given a green light. He's currently looking not only like a savior, but Rickey Henderson-esque. Rickey was always fun to watch because every time he reached first base, you assumed he would get to 3rd.

Morgan is obviously not an unknown to fantasy players, but keep in mind: Nyjer has attempted 17 steals in 24 games since joining the Natty's. 

Thoughts: Pick him up, especially in roto leagues where he can provide a huge punch and lift in the SB category.

Josh Willingham, WAS: Really??? I'm putting two Nationals as players to pick up for the upcoming week?

Well, it's not that Willingham was an unknown. He's been one of those high potential players for a few years now; since his time as a Marlin. But Josh got my attention after his two grand slam game. It's not that he was bad before, though.

Now, he's hitting .300 with 16 hr's in 230 ABs. Not too shabby for someone you can potentially find on all shallow and normal sized mixed leagues...

In the words of Jim Carrey in Dumb and Dumber, "PICK 'EM UP!"

Until next time,

Peace, Love, and Fantasy

WOW! Mark Buehrle

I know that I'm supposed to talk about Fantasy, and I will assess that later in this article. 

I know that Mark Buehrle has always been a very solid pitcher for the White Sox throughout his career. But these last two games have been a little more than outstanding. 

Not only did he have a perfect game (!) in his previous start, but today he threw 5 2/3 of perfect ball also. If you want to do the math, that's 44 straight batters Mr. Buehrle shut down (Take into account that the game before his perfecto, he got his last out of the game (Nick Markakis) to fly out). 45 STRAIGHT!

Well, I'm impressed.

Fantasy implications: Pick him up (duh). If you own him and you don't believe in him, it is a great time to trade him. If you do believe in him, I'd probably stick with him. I wish I had more to say, but I'm at a loss for words...

Until next time,

Peace, Love, and Fantasy

Ryan Garko's Fantasy Implications

Late last night, Ryan Garko was traded to the San Francisco Giants for Single A pitcher Scott Barnes. 

What does this mean for Fantasy owners: Garko will be inserted into the lineup against lefties. He is a career .318 hitter against southpaws. He can hit for a solid .280 average, and provide some needed pop to the Giants lineup. What will he offer owners, though? Probably 6-8 HRs with around a .280 average. 

In "real life," as my associate and fellow baseball coach Dusty Landwehr said: "The Cardinals trade for Mark DeRosa and Matt Holliday, and [we] the Giants trade for Ryan Garko." 

Yes, he is not a big name, but he does give the Giants a little more flexibility. However, if this is the "big trade" that they had in mind, start looking elsewhere.

Until next time,

Peace, Love, and Fantasy

Hot off the Press-www.BrunoBoys.net

Check out www.BrunoBoys.net to read my first article: QB's-What to Look For: Multiple TD Games.

Read the articles, check out the webazine, and join the forums.

Passing yards are great and all, but with the TD being the bread and butter of fantasy football, the consistent nature in which a quarterback racks up scores is perhaps the most important statistic to look at when selecting your QB on draft day. Just like in the NFL, a productive QB week in and week out in your line-up takes the pressure off the rest of your squad.

With that in mind, let’s look at the top rated QB’s for 2009 and analyze their tendency for the multiple TD game:

Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints): 11 games with at least 2 TD’s. While Brees started 2008 slowly, going for multiple TDs in just 4 of 8 games to start the season, he really picked it up in the second half, finishing the year with a streak of 6 straight multiple TD efforts, coming up big for fantasy owners come playoff time.

Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts): 9 games with at least 2 TD’s. Like Brees, Manning was very similar in terms of his sluggish beginning. Due to a lingering knee injury that lasted into the pre-season, Manning looked rusty the first three weeks of the year, throwing for just 3 TDs to 4 INTs. Overall, though, his numbers ended in Peyton Manning-like fashion, and his high-ranking shows that. 

Tom Brady (New England Patriots): (2007 stats) 14 games with at least 2 TD’s. (Please note: Most of these games resulted in more than 2 TD’s.)  You don’t set the record for most passing TDs in a season without a ridiculous amount of multiple TD performances. Nonetheless, it’s no surprise that teams with Brady in 2007 won most of their leagues.

Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers): 12 games with at least 2 TD’s. You know what they say: “Consistency wins fantasy leagues,” and if you were fortunate enough to have Rivers on your roster in 2008, you probably didn’t have many weeks where low point totals from your QB resulted in a scramble to make up points in other areas.

Kurt Warner (Arizona Cardinals): 10 games with at least 2 TD’s. With the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston to throw to, he’s going to be right up there in terms of rankings with the top tier of QB’s. The only question is his durability, as he’s not getting any younger.

Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers): 10 games with at least 2 TD’s. How do you make Packer fans forget a legend? Going for multiple TDs in 10 games is definitely a start.

Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia Eagles): 7 games with at least 2 TD’s. The fact that McNabb tallied multiple TDs in less than half the games he played in is a bit disconcerting. So is the fact that he had 4 games in which he didn’t throw for a TD at all. However, 2009 could see the Eagle produce a bit more thanks to the addition of rookie wide receiver Jeremy Maclin to go with DeSean Jackson.

Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) : 8 games with at least 2 TD’s. Keep in mind that there were also 3 games in the middle of the season that he had a broken finger and was held out of the lineup.  Based on his percentages, he would have had 2 more games with at least 2 TD’s. You could do worse…

Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears): 8 games with at least 2 TD’s. The man from Santa Claus (Indiana) shall be providing you all with presents throughout the whole season, and hopefully not just in December. As long as he isn’t giving gifts to the opposing defensive backs, he should be in for a solid year as the #9 quarterback.

Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons): 5 games with at least 2 TD’s. Obviously keep in mind that as a rookie, Coach Mike Smith relied heavily on the running game and that he will probably let the second year QB run a little more rampant in 2009, which should result in higher TD totals, especially when you factor Tony Gonzalez into the mix.

Carson Palmer (Cincinnati Bengals): (2007 stats) 7 games with at least 2 TD’s. Yes, I know Housh is gone, but Laveranues Coles isn’t garbage. Coles in fact could be a better fit with Ochocinco, allowing the brash wide receiver to take care of the spotlight. Harmony in the passing game would be nice both for the receivers and Palmer.

Matt Schaub (Houston Texans): 5 games with at least 2 TD’s. Temper your groans; Schaub posted those 5 games in just 11 games played. While not a great ratio, I believe he’s capable of much more than this – Andre Johnson being his main target doesn’t hurt. But, can he stay healthy for the full slate of a 16-game season?

Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers): 5 games with at least 2 TD’s. If you can’t tell, you’re not among the top tiers anymore. In his 3 years prior to 2008, Big Ben posted 9 (‘07), 5 (‘06), and 6 (‘05) multiple TD games. Expect a low of 5 up to a high of 8 in 2009.

Matt Cassel (Kansas City): 5 games with at least 2 TD’s. All the hype…numbers not so much. Similar to McNabb, what is scarier is that in 6 (!) of his games, he posted all of ZERO TD’s. Throw in a weaker supporting cast and it’s proceed with extreme caution time…

Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle Seahawks): (2007 stats) 10 games with at least 2 TD’s. People sure are down on a guy, especially with the team bringing in a #1 receiver in T.J. Houshmandzadeh.  Could be in for a “typical Matt Hasselbeck year” circa 2003-08 (I mean the years where all he did was produce consistently and constantly. That’s what it’s all about isn’t it?).

Eli Manning (New York Giants): 5 games with at least 2 TD’s. Sure you could do worse, I guess. Facts are, even in his magical 2007 Super Bowl winning year, he still only posted 5 games with at least 2 TD’s. Back to the drawing board.

Kyle Orton (Denver Broncos): 7 games with at least 2 TD’s. If he can develop a rapport with Brandon Marshall in training camp and if he can get a handle of the Josh McDaniel run offense, his numbers could be inflated. I’m not sure that he’s the most talented QB out there (in fact, I’m positive he’s not), but there is undoubtedly some potential.

Trent Edwards (Buffalo Bills): 1 game with at least 2 TD’s. It’s not a pretty number. But in my opinion, he is one of the guys that could make that jump to the next level this season. The reason? None other than T.O.

Draft day is all about making the wise decision. Knowing the above, only helps to clarify what that is.

Holliday to the Cards

Wow, today has been a day. Matt Holliday has recently been traded to the St. Louis Cardinals.

What this does in the MLB: Holliday provides a huge presence behind Albert Pujols which will inevitably force teams to pitch to Pujols (To this argument, how have teams even considered pitching to Pujols after 9 straight unbelievable seasons??? It's embarrassing that at bat after at bat he gets pitches to hit and teams have no way of pitching around him).

I'm not in love with the Cardinals pitching rotation, but their offense has now become lethal. A force to be reckoned with....

What it does for Fantasy Implications:

This is what you all want to know about. Yes, those of you in AL only leagues must be pissed off, to say the least. Those in NL leagues, must be ecstatic and are figuring out ways to acquire as much Free Agency money as you can to get your hands on Matt Holliday.

Albert Pujols, who is already the best fantasy player in all the land, is now even better. Skip Schumaker will definitely put up 100 runs now (if that is something you need). Holliday should continue to hit for power, steal bases, and provide a solid hitter to any fantasy team. Ryan Ludwick can hopefully keep up his July pace for the rest of the season...

The real winner is Colby Rasmus. This kid has continued to impress throughout the season, and he just seems to get better and better. Rasmus will be the real deal soon enough. Pick him up in all mixed-leagues.

Until next time,

Peace, Love and Fantasy

Fantasy Football: www.BrunoBoys.net

For all your news on Fantasy Football throughout this upcoming season, check out www.BrunoBoys.net.

With great insight from fantasy experts, they are your one-stop shop for football advice. 

Along with a fantastic, FREE, 118-page fantasy football webazine; their quick responses to questions regarding your teams do not go unnoticed.

Use them and ride your way to Fantasy Gold.

Roy Halladay Fantasy Implications

Roy Halladay. 

For what he's worth to almost any MLB team is immeasurable. Recent talks claim the Phillies are still the frontrunner. 

If Halladay goes to the NL, I think his ERA drops at least .3 the rest of the way. And the way that Halladay pitches, that could be dangerous to fantasy competitors. However, the bandbox that the Phillies play in may not be the best spot for him.

Roy Halladay, LAD: Doesn't look right. It's not just being a Giants fan that makes me hate this, but with a staff that I think is not credible enough to win it all in the playoffs, Halladay ensures them that they are just that. Fantasy-wise, being allowed the honor to play in the NL West could be absolutely devastating to competition the rest of the way.

The other two potential suitors are the NL Central foes, the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals. Reality aside, I think Halladay again gains value by moving to either of these teams, but not such an extreme difference between playing right now in the AL East. The Cardinals would just be filthy though, with Carpenter, Halladay and Wainwright when they make it to the playoffs, but I digress.

Other possible teams are: Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants. These teams are noticeably far from having a chance, so I'm not going to put my two cents into these low percentage Halladay owners.

Wherever he goes, he will be a boost to your fantasy roster. Roy Halladay has shown the consistency as a fantasy starter, mainly by going deep into ballgames allowing the chance at more wins on his polished resume.

Player Spotlights: David Wright & Bobby Abreu

What are the thoughts about David Wright this year? While he is running at a greater pace than he ever has before, all of his other numbers across the board have slumped significantly.

I, for one, think that he will turn around what has been a "disappointment" in fantasy leagues. I quote this because while some expected at least 15-15 before the break, he is still ranked highly in all leagues.

But David Wright hit his magical age of 26/27, and his power numbers have been meager. His turn around will be vast in the second half. While his overall numbers throughout will not be 30-30 like everyone expected, with a very solid second half, he could easily end up being a 20-35 player at the end of the season.

The Mets offense has struggled, some would say it has been downright offensive.  Beltran, Delgado and Reyes; is that serious? How can one of the best hitters in the league do what he does best when his lineup protection has now become Jeff Francouer.  In fact, look at their starting lineup on Wednesday, July 22nd:

Pagan

Castillo

Murphy

Wright

Francouer

Sullivan

Berroa

Schneider

Pelfrey

Ummm...Really? When I thought this team would be an offensive juggernaut, I must have been mistaken because injuries have really killed this team. It's unfortunate that Wright has such an awful team surrounding him today...

Bobby Abreu has never done anything wrong. Which I think may be why he always falls through the cracks on draft day and throughout trades.

In my main fantasy league, he has been traded twice. Perhaps he has become expendable for teams...But I really don't understand why. All Abreu has done is exactly the same as he has done every year since he joined the Phillies in 1998; hit and run. Yeah, it sounds like a crime, but the fact of the matter is, it's a crime that he is an afterthought throughout fantasy leagues.

His consistency is only paralleled by a few studs, and while he obviously does not deserve the first few rounds in drafts, he is treated poorly, and has been since he was traded to the Yankees in 2007 when everyone thought he was over the hill. His pace of 35 steals says otherwise. 

If you have some stupid owners in your leagues, take care of it and make an offer for Abreu before it's too late.

Until next time,

Peace, Love and Fantasy

Going off in the 2nd Half

So who is going to go off in the 2nd half of the MLB season? Are pitchers like Greinke, King Felix, and Cain all going to stay as hot as I said they would 4 months ago? 

I'm not gonna call myself a genius. In fact, most of my 1st half wills and won'ts were way off base. But let me hit you with some knowledge...They were purposely supposed to be wrong. I'm not gonna waste time by saying facts that everyone knows are going to be true.

Pujols will be good=FACT. 

What the reader really wants to read is who will not be as good as most originally believed?

Whether or not, I did mention that Greinke, Felix, and Cain would dominate in the first half. 3 picks, 3 all-stars.

Question is: Who will keep up their pace moving forward (or pick it up after stumbling), or more importantly, who will lose the streak and not assist you in the 2nd half?

Players to trade for/pick up:

Miguel Cabrera, DET: While it's not like he struggled, I expect much, MUCH more in his second half this year. I'm sure he won't be easy to trade for, but consider giving up first half studs like Bartlett, Reynolds, or Crawford; all guys that I think will slow down in the second half.

Pablo Sandoval, SF: Yes, the .330 pace will be kept up throughout the entire season. For those who have not had the pleasure to watch him in action, please do. He has become more selective, which means he will be one of the most dangerous hitters in the second half this season. 

Juan Pierre, LAD: Pierre is an injury in the Dodger outfield away from not only being fantasy relevant, but being a stud. Trade for him now while he is cheap, and reap the benefits if someone goes down. He is worth stashing on the bench until the right time.

Lance Berkman, HOU: .260 in the first half. He will be hitting .295 by the end of the second half. What does that mean? It means he will hit at least .315 the rest of the way to get there. Throw in 15 more home runs and 5-8 steals, and he is back where he started the season, one of the best in the league.

Joey Votto: CIN: No, he probably won't hit .347 for the entire season. He probably won't even hit .325. But this kid is extremely talented, so it wouldn't shock me if he did either. One thing is for sure, as long as his dizziness is behind him, he will keep hitting for power and cement his place among the top 8 one baggers in the league.

Players to trade away:

I've already mentioned Reynolds, Bartlett, and Crawford. Reynolds is easy. Power potential=HUGE. Steals potential=Average. Batting average=Much below average. The fact that he is running at will is a surprise. A guy who strikes out this often is certain to fall into deep slumps, something he didn't see in the first half. If you were lucky enough to have him, great. Just make sure you sell him before his average dips below .240.

Jason Bartlett, TB: Really? Has he ever been considered even of fantasy relevance before this season? I'm not gonna say it is impossible, he will have value through the second half because Maddon has his team run around the bases like it is little league. But the power is probably not legit, and neither is the .345 average. Don't sit on him and let his numbers drag you down. 

Russell Branyan, SEA: He's finally get hyped up after all these years, and I'm shooting him right back down. The power is real, and nice, but nothing else is. He is going to go back to where he was before this season, a Free Agent in fantasy leagues.

Adrian Gonzalez, SD: His team sucks. He doesn't. But it is a recipe for disaster when you have a fantasy stud. 

Really? After all people expected, that is all that you've produced in the first half?

The award goes to: Nick Markakis. Drafted between rounds 3-5 in drafts, he has been a supreme disappointment. Wasn't this a guy that people thought could go 30-20 this year? He's on pace for 16-3. Don't get me wrong, he's not a bad fantasy player, but really? That is all you've produced?

Shoot for these pitchers in the 2nd half:

John Lackey, ANA; Jon Lester, BOS; Cliff Lee, CLE.

Stay away from:

Chad Billingsley, LAD; Jarrod Washburn, SEA.

NL First Half Wills and Won'ts

As I mentioned before, I am going to give you a few of my predictions for the National League first half. Let me remind you that these are all completely out on a limb, and if I'm right then I consider myself a genius. So without further ado...

National League Wills:

First Half

Catchers: Brian McCann will hit over .320.

1st Basemen: Albert Pujols will yet again lead all one-baggers in average at .356.

2nd Basemen: Rickie Weeks will get hurt...OK, that's too easy. Dan Uggla will hit over .275.

3rd Basemen: David Wright will be the first half MVP for the entire league.

Shortstops: Troy Tulowitzki will lead all shortstops in HR's with 18.

Outfielders: Hunter Pence will make the All-Star team, and will be hitting over .305.

Pitchers: Ricky Nolasco will surprise no one and still have 12 first half wins.

National League Won'ts:

First Half

Catchers: Geovany Soto won't hit 10 HR's. (and Bengie Molina won't lead any catchers in steals)

1st Basemen: Prince Fielder won't break 14 home runs.

2nd Basemen: Chase Utley won't lead all 2nd basemen in HR's.

3rd Basemen: Chipper Jones won't be healthy. And in limited time, won't hit .364 either.

Shortstops: Miguel Tejada won't hit .260.

Outfielders: Adam Dunn won't have over 16 HR's, but he will have 6X that many strikeouts.

Pitchers: Like always, Chris Young won't make more than half his scheduled starts.

Until next time,

Peace, Love, and Fantasy

2009 Baseball AL First Half Wills and Won'ts

I believe Abraham Lincoln said it best: "There are only two things certain in life; death and taxes." Well, before fantasy baseball was around at least. Here are some predictions that I have for Fantasy/MLB First Halves.

American League Wills:

First Half

Catchers: Mike Napoli will lead all AL catchers in HR's with 12.

1st Basemen: Miguel Cabrera will lead all AL 1st basemen in average at a .363 clip.

2nd Basemen: Robinson Cano will lead all AL 2nd basemen with a .331 average.

3rd Basemen: Chone Figgins will lead all AL 3rd basemen with 28 steals.

Shortstops: Derek Jeter will be the All-Star starting shortstop, even though 3 AL shortstops will have better numbers than him (M. Young, J. Peralta, M. Aviles)

Outfielders: Jacoby Ellsbury will lead all AL OF's in steals, and Matt Holliday will lead all AL OF's in HR's and batting average.

Pitchers: Jon Lester will be the best AL starting pitcher.

American League Won'ts:

First Half

Catchers: Victor Martinez won't have the most HR's at catcher on his own team.

1st Basemen: Justin Morneau won't break the 10 HR mark.

2nd Basemen: Howie Kendrick won't get hurt.

3rd Basemen: Evan Longoria won't hit .250.

Shortstops: They all won't live up to their statistics from last year.

Outfielders: Carlos Quentin won't repeat his first half from last year, and fortunately for B.J. Upton, neither will he.

Pitchers: Brian Fuentes won't lead his own team in saves, Jose Arredondo will.

Hope you enjoyed these First Half predictions. Stay tuned for my NL version of the same.

Until next time,

Peace, Love, and Fantasy

The Problem with Wins

Y Young races are all about wins. Did his team make it to the playoffs, and did he win enough games so he deserved to win this outstanding award?  Well fortunately for us, wins aren't everything in fantasy baseball.  In fact in a typical rotisserie league, 5x5, it is only 1 category. Therefore a good starting pitcher on a bad team is good for 3 out of your 5 pitching categories, which is equivalent to 1st basemen like Carlos Delgado or Derrek Lee.  Early mid-round picks right?  So what is the infatuation with wins?  Nobody complains that Delgado is a great 3 category player, so why do we claim that pitchers on bad teams are undeniably worse than lesser pitchers luckily on better teams?

Here are some quick names of good, underestimated pitchers on bad teams:

Matt Cain, SF:  Fits this bill to a T.  This will be his breakout year, and he will get more wins than he has averaged the past few years.  He will put up numbers consistent with pitchers drafted at least 4 rounds higher due to a little stat that starts with W.  

Felix Hernandez, SEA:  Do not draft this man any lower because he had less wins.  Simple as that.  He is gonna be great, and it will start this year, still with no run support.

Zack Greinke, KC:  Yes, he is obviously not forgotten.  But he is deemed worse than other pitchers who he is much more talented than.  Expect very good peripherals with a potential low win record due to the inept offense of the Kansas City Royals.

Overvalued due to wins:

Joe Saunders, LAA:  Yes, he is just not that good.

Mark Buehrle, ChiSox:  Ditto.  But at least he works quick, because if he didn't, it would be almost unbearable to watch him go every 5th day.

Fantasy Baseball Busts

Fantasy experts insist that any player that was not known to be "good" and has a good year will most likely be a bust in the following season. How tough is it to assume Ryan Ludwick will not hit .300 as he was never a .300 hitter in the minor leagues? Kevin Youkilis has never shown that kind of power, so they assume it will decrease. Too easy.

I will bring a few names to your attention that will not perform as well as their draft order may bring.

Vladimir Guerrero, LAA: I was one of his biggest fans during his stay in Montreal. What has changed? Well he has completely stopped running, and he is nearing a total breakdown. It's sad to see one of this era's best hitters going down the drain, but it's inevitable. His 4-5 round draft pick will not pay the dividends where they should, with an endless supply of players I would prefer to have at that spot.

Alex Rios, TOR: Well, I used to like him as a fantasy player, except every year he disappoints. I guess it's hard for me to consider him a bust because I don't think he's ever been that good. Last year was supposed to be his breakout year, and he failed. He is still drafted in the 5th round? Is this a joke? He had 3 homeruns in the first half of last season. It doesn't matter if you're in a rotisserie league or head-to-head, 3 homeruns is going to kill the production out of an outfield spot where you should have 15-20 jacks through the first half.

Rickie Weeks, MIL: Potential, whatever. Every year he is drafted as the 8th 2nd baseman taken and never pays off. This is the year that hopefully people will learn. Yes, he is talented, but he should be hitting near the bottom of a stacked Brewer lineup seeing as he is truly a .250 hitter. Don't reach for this guy, especially with players like Kelly Johnson going after him. In fact, check out the Giants 2nd baseman position and see how comes out as the winner. If it is Emmanuel Burriss, look at him as being a potential Rafael Furcal type of hitter in the Majors.

Bobby Jenks, ChiSox: You can draft him as the 5th best closer. Go right ahead. Every year there are 3 stud closers coming in that actually make their potential or stats from the previous year. Unfortunately, Papelbon, Rivera and Nathan have already closed the books for the past 3 years and the next 3 years. This doesn't bode well for Jenks. He has become increasingly less effective, and this will probably be the year he bloats (blows?) up completely.

Jake's Bust pick of the year:

Mark Teixeira, NYY: It kills me to put that symbol after his name. NYY. Why does that mean his fantasy production will decrease? Well, we all know the first month he won't be good. That is a given, but it is also manageable. It also doesn't bode well that he is never a good first half player. But above all, the big stage in New York will take a toll on him, especially with A-Roid out. Prediction: .278, 96 runs, 27 home runs, 106 RBI. Not horrendous, but you're getting this from a 2nd round pick? You can get better from Aramis Ramirez in the 5-6 range.

Until next time,
Peace, Love, and Fantasy

What's in a Strategy?

There are so many strategies that can take place during a fantasy baseball draft. Do you draft knowing that there are only 3 "studs" at shortstop? Or do you wait on starting pitchers til the end of the draft hoping you find a few diamonds in the rough? Or perhaps not draft any closers until your last rounds, like all the experts tell you to do with kickers in football? Well I will leave you all with another thought, how bout you take the best player available all the time.

If you are given enough knowledge about your league, you can draft the best player available in every round and end up with a superior team. Why is Dustin Pedroia drafted in the mid-2nd round? People believe the need is for a strong 2nd baseman and shortstop, the "weaker" spots in fantasy. I'm going to lead you all in another direction.

Don't reach for players if you decide to "tier it up." Just because Jose Reyes is the last shortstop in your top tier does not mean that you should fret and go after Jimmy Rollins early because you missed out on Reyes. I'm providing you some options at each position that you can rely on with your last few picks so that you have the availibility to draft the best player available.

Catchers:

Don't worry if you don't get Joe Mauer. He's completely replaceable. Go after A.J. Pierzynski 18 rounds later and get a perennial .290 hitter with power numbers even slightly better than Mauer's.

Others: Kelly Shoppach, Cleveland; Chris Snyder, Arizona.

1st Basemen:

When looking at getting players late, you must realize there will be deficiencies. At the first baseman position, it will typically be big power numbers with little else (.250 batting average).
If you miss out on elite options, go after .300 hitters like Conor Jackson, James Loney, Carlos Guillen or Casey Kotchman. If it is power you need, look towards Mike Jacobs, Jason Giambi, or Paul Konerko to provide 30 home run power late in the draft.

2nd Basemen:

While people believe this is an extremely thin position, there are options here. Players like Mark DeRosa, Kelly Johnson, and Mike Aviles can provide valuable depth at a position thought of to be shallow. Unless I'm grabbing Kinsler or Utley, I'm waiting. The difference between Dustin Pedroia and Mike Aviles is not as vast as you may believe.

Shortstops:

Let's be honest, Ramirez and Reyes are on a planet of their own with shortstops. If Rollins can get back to 2007, he will be joining their ranks. But after those guys, you can afford to wait. Players like Yunel Escobar, Ryan Theriot, and don't scoff, but Edgar Renteria, can be of valuable service at the end of the draft. Even though Renteria has lost a step, it is no surprise that he is a much better player in the NL.

3rd Basemen:

Very similar in terms of gettin production late in the draft, you will have to focus on the weaknesses of your team. 20-25 HR potential players include: Joe Crede, Jorge Cantu, Edwin Encarnacion, and a possibly healthy Troy Glaus. If you're looking for steals, it is best to look elsewhere from these bashers.

Outfielders:

Don't count out forgotten players like Eric Byrnes, Hideki Matsui and Jeff Francouer. If given an opportunity, all three of these guys could shine like they used to in fantasy leagues all around. There are so many talented outfielders that many get lost in the mix, don't forget that each of these guys have ceilings higher than many ranked ahead of them.

Starting Pitchers:

I know I've mentioned starting pitchers to target late in drafts in a previous post. Reports out of A's camp say that Trevor Cahill might capture the 5th spot in that rotation. If that is the case, this talented stud could be on the fast track to fantasy magazines. Keep track of him throughout Spring Training. Ubaldo Jimenez had an amazing WBC, and can definitely be relevant in fantasy talks.

Any pitchers worth drafting late are probably also worth picking up in the first few weeks of the season. Don't put too much into pitchers doing great or struggling in Spring Training. Keep early tabs on starters through their first round or two of the season and pick them up accordingly.

It is important to notice that you don't have to reach for catchers early if a run starts on them. You should be the person dictating the pace of your draft, not somebody else. Don't reach for players unless they are a must-have for your roster. There are comparable players at every position, you just need to stay ahead of the curve. Don't be afraid to take a risk, because it is known that there are valuable commodities on your waiver wire at every turn. How many people drafted Ryan Ludwick last season?

Until next time,
Peace, Love, and Fantasy

Pick 'Em

McCann vs. Martin vs. Mauer:  Options of this sort come down to extreme preference.  Questions like these are the exact reason why I'm going to focus on the much tougher decisions in fantasy baseball: Who should be your last few picks in a draft?  McCann has the best power potential, Martin has the best stolen base number, and Mauer has the best batting average.  Depending on which you like and what you need will be how you make your decisions.  My pick is McCann because of his 3-4 category production, but nonetheless let's focus on the task at hand.

Catchers

Chris Iannetta vs. Ryan Doumit:  The differences between the two are power and average.  Iannetta is superior in the home run category while Doumit has the upper hand in average.  My thought is, in the bandbox that Iannetta plays in, he will trump Doumit in 3 out of the 5 categories, and is enough to give him the boost ahead of Doumit.  The 15 or 20 points in average that Doumit gives you will typically not make or break you, especially in a Rotisserie league.

1st Basemen

Conor Jackson vs. James Loney:  Besides the fact that Jackson also plays the OF position, I think that Jackson will have a far greater year in production.  These guys are typically ranked around the same, but I think Jackson has the better upside of the two picks.  It's not to say that I dislike Loney, but these NL West foes are both young up-and-comers at their respective positions.  As of today, I take Jackson about a round ahead of where Loney is going.

Shortstops

J.J. Hardy vs. Michael Young vs. Jhonny Peralta vs. Miguel Tejada:  Around fantasy circles Michael Young is always the first pick out of these guys, but why?  He does everything well and nothing spectacular.  Why not make your life easier as a fantasy manager and draft a guy who has the potential to hit 30 jacks in a given season?  J.J. Hardy is my pick out of these four to have the best fantasy season, with a very young and solid lineup, expect his numbers to be around .280 with 30 jacks and 85 RBI.  Rank:  Hardy, Peralta, Young, Tejada.  Unless you know you will be deficient in batting average (see: Dunn, Adam; Reynolds, Mark; Young, Chris B.), Young is probably not the best pick out of these four shortstops; although he will give you your best shot at a .300 average and 200 hits.

Outfielders

Torii Hunter vs. Raul Ibanez:  Why do people have the obsession with believing Torii Hunter is a fantasy stud?  In actuality, this is a player I don't want to touch with a 10-foot pole.  Unless robbing Barry Bonds in an All-Star game is one of your categories, Raul Ibanez is better at 4 of 5 categories.  While he may not be very flashy (or flashy at all), he is the definition of consistency, and falls into a perfect situation with a great lineup surrounding him and a great park to hit in.  You can find those 12 stolen bases that Hunter will beat Ibanez in somewhere else, just draft Martin over Mauer.  But with your pick if you're deciding between the two, take the former Royal and Mariner.

I hope this will answer a few of your most important questions relating to the wide world of fantasy baseball.

Until next time,

Peace, Love, and Fantasy

Not So Primetime

As I've mentioned before, it is easy to pick Lincecum, Webb, Sabathia and Santana.  What makes a great fantasy manager is the ability to make great picks late in drafts and through free agency.

Here are some names of mid-to-late round picks that will benefit you in 2009:

Josh Johnson, FLA: Although many people have heard of him and know what he did in his rookie campaign, this is a guy that I would target on all fantasy rosters.  He is a huge strikeout pitcher and since coming back from his injury in mid-2008 did nothing but impress.  Probably going around 14-16th in most drafts, he is a guy who can bring as much value as a #2 pitcher on a fantasy squad.  Think: A poor man's John Lackey.

Mike Pelfrey, NYM: Not exactly a forgotten commodity around fantasy leagues, but this 25-year-old on an offensive juggernaut is going to bring you between 13-15 wins and a mid-3 ERA.  In the middle to late rounds, you can do worse.  Think: Chien-Ming Wang.

Jonathan Sanchez, SF:  Interested in a strikeout per inning and someone who pitches in a park as big as SBC?  Jonathan Sanchez is your man.  Although the Giants won't give the run production that Pelfrey will get, they may not need to when Sanchez is on his game.  Think: Oliver Perez.  Really high-ceiling, but the ability to be as inconsistent as any.  This may be the year that Sanchez puts it together.

Other players to watch out for:

Brandon Morrow, SEA;  Max Scherzer, ARI;  Fausto Carmona, CLE;  Armando Galarraga, DET;  Chris Young, SD;  Kevin Millwood, TEX.

Getcha Popcorn Ready

It's never too early to look ahead towards next football season. With all the Terrell Owens news the past two days, it got me thinking about why all teams but the Raiders and 49ers have declared non-interest in signing TO. Sure, he's a tremendous headache, but he's an even more tremendous redzone target. I personally think a trip back to San Francisco could be the perfect fit for TO, primarily because of the way that head coach Mike Singletary handles his team. Remember last year that Singletary sent one of his stars, tight end Vernon Davis, to the locker room in the middle of the game for his complaining. If Owens makes his way back to the Niners, expect Singletary to lay down the law and keep TO on a short leash. Singletary will not hesistate to bench the star at the slightest distraction. There's no denying that Owens is an elite wide receiver in the league, specifically because of his ability to find the endzone. For fantasy purposes, finding a wide receiver that can score double digit touchdowns in a season is hard to come by. In leagues that award 6 points for receiving touchdowns, getting an elite wideout with a nose for the endzone is even more important. My top wideouts in terms of touchdowns scored for 2009 (receptions and yardage not considered):

1.) Larry Fitzgerald- The most dominant postseason for a wideout in NFL history. With Warner returning to the Cards, there's no reason that Fitz shouldn't find the endzone in nearly every contest. The status of Anquan Boldin certainly will affect Fitz' production, but even if Boldin departs, Steve Breaston is talented enough to keep some attention off of Fitz. Prediction: 17 TDs.

2.) Calvin Johnson- If there was one word to describe the potential that Johnson has going into his third season in the NFL (typically a wideout's breakout season) it would be "terrifying." Johnson found the endzone 12 times last season, but that doesn't even describe how amazing his season was. The Lions were the worst team in the history of the NFL, had absolutely nothing at the quarterback position, and Johnson was double-teamed every play from scrimmage and occasionally triple-teamed. Now, Johnson inherits the cannon attached to the body of rookie Matthew Stafford. Assuming Stafford lives up to even half the hype of his arm, the Lions and Johnson have nowhere to go but up. Prediction: 16 TDs

3.) Randy Moss- Assuming Tom Brady's return goes as planned, there's no reason to think that Moss won't put up ridiculous touchdown numbers next season. After all, the Brady/Moss combination was the highest single-season scoring duo in NFL history just a season ago. However, Moss is a little bit older and teams have made stopping him the first priority on defense. Remember that Moss didn't have nearly the success in the post-season 2 years ago that he did during the regular season once opponents put all the focus on him. Prediction: 14 TDs.

4.) Andre Johnson- Perhaps the most talented wide receiver in the NFL, Johnson hasn't put up the touchdown numbers he is capable of primarily due to injuries and a less-than-stellar offense. But the Texans' offense is looking up with the solid play of Matt Schaub and rising star Steve Slaton. If the Texans are able to find a way to keep teams from double-teaming Johnson every play, it's likely that Johnson has a career year. Prediction: 13 TDs.

5.) Anquan Boldin- This is assuming he re-signs with the Cardinals and their high-flying offense. With Fitzgerald's ridiculous post-season play, people seem to have forgotten that Boldin was the better receiver for the first 12 games of the regular season before he was sidelined and slowed by injuries. Had Boldin stayed healthy, he may have put up around 15 regular season touchdowns. He has a nose for the endzone and is one of the hardest receivers to bring down after the catch in the NFL. Prediction: 11 TDs.

6.) Terrell Owens- No idea where he will end up, but his athletic ability is too good to keep him off of this list. Assuming he doesn't get benched or suspended for being a liability to his team, he will find the endzone often. He has too many touchdown celebrations prepared not to. If he signs with one of the Bay Area teams, he will be stuck with a young quarterback. Whether it be Jamarcus Russell in Oakland or Shaun Hill/Mark Sanchez in San Francisco, a big reliable target like TO is a nice go-to-guy to have. Both teams have strong running games, so it will be hard to stack everyone against Owens. In San Francisco, the presence of Vernon Davis should keep safeties from over-playing to Owens' side. Prediction: 10 TDs

Next best: Greg Jennings, Steve Smith, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Marshall

The defending champ,
Chinn

The First is Easy and the Second May be Too Late

It's easy for fantasy baseballers (does that work?) to know who to pick in the first round.  After the surefire five, you're looking at the realm of Cabrera (a no-brainer to me at 6 if available), Sizemore, Kinsler, Braun, Utley, Teixiera, and Holliday/Hamilton.  I think Hamilton is good value towards the end of the first round, but don't expect the production that he had in the first half of 2008.

In the second round you're planning on taking more risks.  Check for the higher upside players. It's not that a player like Ichiro is bad value here, it's just a safe bet.  After a monstrous postseason, I'm expecting a powerful year out of B.J. Upton.  Another Ray (it's so hard not to put Devil in front) who is going to have a bounce back year is Carl Crawford.  I wouldn't want to be the player stuck with Longoria though.  He struggled in the Series, and I think his production would better suit him in the 4th or 5th rounds, not mid-2nd.  After those high upside guys, there is not much more for early in the 2nd, and Beltran, Morneau, Berkman, and Manny should all be somewhat involved in the conversation following.

My phenomenal pick in rounds 2-3 is gonna be Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers.  If you haven't seen this kid play, well....just watch him.  He kind of reminds me of a Brandon Jacobs baseball player. 6'2", 230 built like a linebacker who runs like a runningback.  I'm expecting a .300-100-25-110-35 season.  

All I'm saying, if you are scrounging around for a pick that is highly uninteresting (Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios, Vladdy), why not take a guy that could be a 30-30 player this year late in the 2nd round and get a Grady Sizemore value off your investment. 

Until next time,

Peace, Love, and Fantasy

Left Side, Strong Side

The city of New York is spoiled in getting to watch 2 of the best left-sides of the infield in the major leagues. While it is hard to argue that a combination of Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez is not the best in the majors, you don't have to look farther than across town to find the duo that is their superior. Mets' fans are more than fortunate to have speedster Jose Reyes, 25, at shortstop while five-tool slugger David Wright, 26, holds down the hot corner next to him. Both players are approaching the prime years of their careers and it's scary to think what the Mets offense could do if both get hot at the same time. Consider that 2 guys named Carlos (Delgado and Beltran) hit behind them and the Mets will be a pitcher's nightmare.

At the top of fantasy drafts for 2009, Hanley Ramirez and Albert Pujols will go 1 and 2, but after that it gets interesting. Rodriguez's latest hip injury needs to be monitored and if he is forced to miss some time, the third player drafted in fantasy is going to be a Met. But who do you take when it comes down to Wright and Reyes?

When it comes to runs scored, it's virtually a wash. Reyes can manufacture runs all by himself, but Wright preceeds RBI machines Delgado and Beltran in the lineup. Wright's power numbers were career highs last year as he hit 33 dingers and drove in 124 runs. Reyes hit 16 homeruns with 68 RBIs, but has been destroying the ball this spring. Owners can expect his '09 numbers to be more like his '07 year with upwards of 20 homers and around 85 RBIs. Those power numbers, combined with the 65 stolen bases he has averaged the past 4 years, make Reyes very hard to pass up. However David Wright is no slug, as he swiped 34 bags out of 39 attempts in '07. His stolen base % has actually been better than Reyes' the past 2 years. Wright's batting average has consistently been about 20 points higher than Reyes' as well. If you're looking to guarantee your team some speed, it's hard not to grab Reyes in the third draft spot. Just make sure to complement this pick with a power hitter in the second round with a guy like Josh Hamilton, Ryan Howard, or Prince Fielder. But I think the better fantasy player will be Wright, especially in leagues that count caught stealing as a catagory. Wright has already replaced ARod as the league's best third basemen in many people's eyes and he's only getting better. He delivers in every catagory and has been nothing but consistent. Drafting Wright and then grabbing another 5 tool player like Matt Holiday in the 2nd round will be more than enough stolen bases to make up for passing up Reyes. Grabbing an all-around hitter like Wright also enables an owner to go for a top-5 starting pitcher late in the 2nd round because you wouldn't be committed to making up for a lack of power like you would with drafting Reyes. It's also much easier to pick up a guy that steals 30 bases in the middle-to-later rounds of the draft than it is to find a guy that hits 30 homers.

So the better fantasy option of the Mets' stellar left side? You can't go wrong with Wright.

Keep it classy,
Chinn

Early 2009 Sleeper Picks

Fantasy Sleepers:

Ryan Spilborghs, CF, Colorado Rockies.

Seeing as he will be given the starting role outright, it would not be inconceivable to see a .295 average along with a 20 home run and 15 stolen base campaign. Obviously runs and RBI have more to deal with the team than the player, and I'm not so sure the Rockies are going to have the explosive offense a la Bichette, Burks, Walker, Galarraga and Castilla. Whether or not, this is a consistent .300 hitter throughout professional baseball, and he plays 81 games within the confines of the one and only, Coors Field.


Delmon Young, RF, Minnesota Twins.

This bat-throwing extraordinaire is not an unknown commodity around fantasy circles. In 2007 he posted career-highs of 13 jacks and 93 RBI. Only two years removed from these numbers, and a slightly disappointing first year in Minnesota, expect him to turn it around across the board. A .300 average, 20 homeruns, 100 RBI, and 18-22 steals. This is a guy that I would love to draft in the 8th-10th rounds of any draft. To put the icing on the cake, he will also be top 5 in AL outfielder assists.

Until next time,
Peace, Love, and Fantasy

Manny being Manny

Well Manny just signed with the Dodgers which was a surprise to absolutely nobody. But what does it do for fantasy implications?

Manny now goes into the heart of a lineup involving Rafael Furcal, Russell Martin, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and James Loney. I still do not understand how people don't view him as a top 5 outfielder based on the team and recent performances.

I would not be surprised to see a .325 avg, with 100 runs, 38 homeruns, and around 120+ RBI's.  If you're not in a keeper league, he should be drafted somewhere in the late 2nd round.  After Sizemore and Braun, it would not be a stretch to grab the man that will guarantee you a solid performance.

Until next time,

Peace, Love, and Fantasy

The First of Many

We'd like to welcome all of you to our Fantasy Freestylin' blog.  We plan on providing some expert analysis to some of the important questions and concerns of fantasy sports.

Baseball season is just around the corner, and we have been diligently reading and watching to find out about baseball news for the fantasy athlete.

I'm going to start this post off with a valuable question in fantasy drafts. Lincecum or Santana?

Biases aside, Lincecum is hands down the #1 starting pitcher pick.  I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Santana will begin the season slightly dinged up (already dealing with an elbow issue), and he will not be as reliable the fantasy ace that he has been in years past.  It is hard to predict what kind of stats "The Freak" will have coming off his CY Young season.  My fearless prediction will be 16-4, 273 K's, 2.62 ERA, and a 1.12 WHIP. 

I have seen Santana go higher than Lincecum consistently, and I would advise against it. Santana will have a top 5 season from a starting pitcher, but suffice to say, will play a second fiddle to Lincecum's season.  The stars are aligned for another spectacular year from "The Freak".

Until next time,

Peace, Love, and Fantasy