Fantasy experts insist that any player that was not known to be "good" and has a good year will most likely be a bust in the following season. How tough is it to assume Ryan Ludwick will not hit .300 as he was never a .300 hitter in the minor leagues? Kevin Youkilis has never shown that kind of power, so they assume it will decrease. Too easy.
I will bring a few names to your attention that will not perform as well as their draft order may bring.
Vladimir Guerrero, LAA: I was one of his biggest fans during his stay in Montreal. What has changed? Well he has completely stopped running, and he is nearing a total breakdown. It's sad to see one of this era's best hitters going down the drain, but it's inevitable. His 4-5 round draft pick will not pay the dividends where they should, with an endless supply of players I would prefer to have at that spot.
Alex Rios, TOR: Well, I used to like him as a fantasy player, except every year he disappoints. I guess it's hard for me to consider him a bust because I don't think he's ever been that good. Last year was supposed to be his breakout year, and he failed. He is still drafted in the 5th round? Is this a joke? He had 3 homeruns in the first half of last season. It doesn't matter if you're in a rotisserie league or head-to-head, 3 homeruns is going to kill the production out of an outfield spot where you should have 15-20 jacks through the first half.
Rickie Weeks, MIL: Potential, whatever. Every year he is drafted as the 8th 2nd baseman taken and never pays off. This is the year that hopefully people will learn. Yes, he is talented, but he should be hitting near the bottom of a stacked Brewer lineup seeing as he is truly a .250 hitter. Don't reach for this guy, especially with players like Kelly Johnson going after him. In fact, check out the Giants 2nd baseman position and see how comes out as the winner. If it is Emmanuel Burriss, look at him as being a potential Rafael Furcal type of hitter in the Majors.
Bobby Jenks, ChiSox: You can draft him as the 5th best closer. Go right ahead. Every year there are 3 stud closers coming in that actually make their potential or stats from the previous year. Unfortunately, Papelbon, Rivera and Nathan have already closed the books for the past 3 years and the next 3 years. This doesn't bode well for Jenks. He has become increasingly less effective, and this will probably be the year he bloats (blows?) up completely.
Jake's Bust pick of the year:
Mark Teixeira, NYY: It kills me to put that symbol after his name. NYY. Why does that mean his fantasy production will decrease? Well, we all know the first month he won't be good. That is a given, but it is also manageable. It also doesn't bode well that he is never a good first half player. But above all, the big stage in New York will take a toll on him, especially with A-Roid out. Prediction: .278, 96 runs, 27 home runs, 106 RBI. Not horrendous, but you're getting this from a 2nd round pick? You can get better from Aramis Ramirez in the 5-6 range.
Until next time,
Peace, Love, and Fantasy
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