Monday, March 16, 2009

The Problem with Wins


Y Young races are all about wins. Did his team make it to the playoffs, and did he win enough games so he deserved to win this outstanding award?  Well fortunately for us, wins aren't everything in fantasy baseball.  In fact in a typical rotisserie league, 5x5, it is only 1 category. Therefore a good starting pitcher on a bad team is good for 3 out of your 5 pitching categories, which is equivalent to 1st basemen like Carlos Delgado or Derrek Lee.  Early mid-round picks right?  So what is the infatuation with wins?  Nobody complains that Delgado is a great 3 category player, so why do we claim that pitchers on bad teams are undeniably worse than lesser pitchers luckily on better teams?

Here are some quick names of good, underestimated pitchers on bad teams:

Matt Cain, SF:  Fits this bill to a T.  This will be his breakout year, and he will get more wins than he has averaged the past few years.  He will put up numbers consistent with pitchers drafted at least 4 rounds higher due to a little stat that starts with W.  

Felix Hernandez, SEA:  Do not draft this man any lower because he had less wins.  Simple as that.  He is gonna be great, and it will start this year, still with no run support.

Zack Greinke, KC:  Yes, he is obviously not forgotten.  But he is deemed worse than other pitchers who he is much more talented than.  Expect very good peripherals with a potential low win record due to the inept offense of the Kansas City Royals.

Overvalued due to wins:

Joe Saunders, LAA:  Yes, he is just not that good.

Mark Buehrle, ChiSox:  Ditto.  But at least he works quick, because if he didn't, it would be almost unbearable to watch him go every 5th day.

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