Check out www.BrunoBoys.net to read my first article: QB's-What to Look For: Multiple TD Games.
Passing yards are great and all, but with the TD being the bread and butter of fantasy football, the consistent nature in which a quarterback racks up scores is perhaps the most important statistic to look at when selecting your QB on draft day. Just like in the NFL, a productive QB week in and week out in your line-up takes the pressure off the rest of your squad.
With that in mind, let’s look at the top rated QB’s for 2009 and analyze their tendency for the multiple TD game:
Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints): 11 games with at least 2 TD’s. While Brees started 2008 slowly, going for multiple TDs in just 4 of 8 games to start the season, he really picked it up in the second half, finishing the year with a streak of 6 straight multiple TD efforts, coming up big for fantasy owners come playoff time.
Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts): 9 games with at least 2 TD’s. Like Brees, Manning was very similar in terms of his sluggish beginning. Due to a lingering knee injury that lasted into the pre-season, Manning looked rusty the first three weeks of the year, throwing for just 3 TDs to 4 INTs. Overall, though, his numbers ended in Peyton Manning-like fashion, and his high-ranking shows that.
Tom Brady (New England Patriots): (2007 stats) 14 games with at least 2 TD’s. (Please note: Most of these games resulted in more than 2 TD’s.) You don’t set the record for most passing TDs in a season without a ridiculous amount of multiple TD performances. Nonetheless, it’s no surprise that teams with Brady in 2007 won most of their leagues.
Philip Rivers (San Diego Chargers): 12 games with at least 2 TD’s. You know what they say: “Consistency wins fantasy leagues,” and if you were fortunate enough to have Rivers on your roster in 2008, you probably didn’t have many weeks where low point totals from your QB resulted in a scramble to make up points in other areas.
Kurt Warner (Arizona Cardinals): 10 games with at least 2 TD’s. With the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, and Steve Breaston to throw to, he’s going to be right up there in terms of rankings with the top tier of QB’s. The only question is his durability, as he’s not getting any younger.
Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers): 10 games with at least 2 TD’s. How do you make Packer fans forget a legend? Going for multiple TDs in 10 games is definitely a start.
Donovan McNabb (Philadelphia Eagles): 7 games with at least 2 TD’s. The fact that McNabb tallied multiple TDs in less than half the games he played in is a bit disconcerting. So is the fact that he had 4 games in which he didn’t throw for a TD at all. However, 2009 could see the Eagle produce a bit more thanks to the addition of rookie wide receiver Jeremy Maclin to go with DeSean Jackson.
Tony Romo (Dallas Cowboys) : 8 games with at least 2 TD’s. Keep in mind that there were also 3 games in the middle of the season that he had a broken finger and was held out of the lineup. Based on his percentages, he would have had 2 more games with at least 2 TD’s. You could do worse…
Jay Cutler (Chicago Bears): 8 games with at least 2 TD’s. The man from Santa Claus (Indiana) shall be providing you all with presents throughout the whole season, and hopefully not just in December. As long as he isn’t giving gifts to the opposing defensive backs, he should be in for a solid year as the #9 quarterback.
Matt Ryan (Atlanta Falcons): 5 games with at least 2 TD’s. Obviously keep in mind that as a rookie, Coach Mike Smith relied heavily on the running game and that he will probably let the second year QB run a little more rampant in 2009, which should result in higher TD totals, especially when you factor Tony Gonzalez into the mix.
Carson Palmer (Cincinnati Bengals): (2007 stats) 7 games with at least 2 TD’s. Yes, I know Housh is gone, but Laveranues Coles isn’t garbage. Coles in fact could be a better fit with Ochocinco, allowing the brash wide receiver to take care of the spotlight. Harmony in the passing game would be nice both for the receivers and Palmer.
Matt Schaub (Houston Texans): 5 games with at least 2 TD’s. Temper your groans; Schaub posted those 5 games in just 11 games played. While not a great ratio, I believe he’s capable of much more than this – Andre Johnson being his main target doesn’t hurt. But, can he stay healthy for the full slate of a 16-game season?
Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers): 5 games with at least 2 TD’s. If you can’t tell, you’re not among the top tiers anymore. In his 3 years prior to 2008, Big Ben posted 9 (‘07), 5 (‘06), and 6 (‘05) multiple TD games. Expect a low of 5 up to a high of 8 in 2009.
Matt Cassel (Kansas City): 5 games with at least 2 TD’s. All the hype…numbers not so much. Similar to McNabb, what is scarier is that in 6 (!) of his games, he posted all of ZERO TD’s. Throw in a weaker supporting cast and it’s proceed with extreme caution time…
Matt Hasselbeck (Seattle Seahawks): (2007 stats) 10 games with at least 2 TD’s. People sure are down on a guy, especially with the team bringing in a #1 receiver in T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Could be in for a “typical Matt Hasselbeck year” circa 2003-08 (I mean the years where all he did was produce consistently and constantly. That’s what it’s all about isn’t it?).
Eli Manning (New York Giants): 5 games with at least 2 TD’s. Sure you could do worse, I guess. Facts are, even in his magical 2007 Super Bowl winning year, he still only posted 5 games with at least 2 TD’s. Back to the drawing board.
Kyle Orton (Denver Broncos): 7 games with at least 2 TD’s. If he can develop a rapport with Brandon Marshall in training camp and if he can get a handle of the Josh McDaniel run offense, his numbers could be inflated. I’m not sure that he’s the most talented QB out there (in fact, I’m positive he’s not), but there is undoubtedly some potential.
Trent Edwards (Buffalo Bills): 1 game with at least 2 TD’s. It’s not a pretty number. But in my opinion, he is one of the guys that could make that jump to the next level this season. The reason? None other than T.O.
Draft day is all about making the wise decision. Knowing the above, only helps to clarify what that is.
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