What's in a Strategy?

There are so many strategies that can take place during a fantasy baseball draft. Do you draft knowing that there are only 3 "studs" at shortstop? Or do you wait on starting pitchers til the end of the draft hoping you find a few diamonds in the rough? Or perhaps not draft any closers until your last rounds, like all the experts tell you to do with kickers in football? Well I will leave you all with another thought, how bout you take the best player available all the time.

If you are given enough knowledge about your league, you can draft the best player available in every round and end up with a superior team. Why is Dustin Pedroia drafted in the mid-2nd round? People believe the need is for a strong 2nd baseman and shortstop, the "weaker" spots in fantasy. I'm going to lead you all in another direction.

Don't reach for players if you decide to "tier it up." Just because Jose Reyes is the last shortstop in your top tier does not mean that you should fret and go after Jimmy Rollins early because you missed out on Reyes. I'm providing you some options at each position that you can rely on with your last few picks so that you have the availibility to draft the best player available.

Catchers:

Don't worry if you don't get Joe Mauer. He's completely replaceable. Go after A.J. Pierzynski 18 rounds later and get a perennial .290 hitter with power numbers even slightly better than Mauer's.

Others: Kelly Shoppach, Cleveland; Chris Snyder, Arizona.

1st Basemen:

When looking at getting players late, you must realize there will be deficiencies. At the first baseman position, it will typically be big power numbers with little else (.250 batting average).
If you miss out on elite options, go after .300 hitters like Conor Jackson, James Loney, Carlos Guillen or Casey Kotchman. If it is power you need, look towards Mike Jacobs, Jason Giambi, or Paul Konerko to provide 30 home run power late in the draft.

2nd Basemen:

While people believe this is an extremely thin position, there are options here. Players like Mark DeRosa, Kelly Johnson, and Mike Aviles can provide valuable depth at a position thought of to be shallow. Unless I'm grabbing Kinsler or Utley, I'm waiting. The difference between Dustin Pedroia and Mike Aviles is not as vast as you may believe.

Shortstops:

Let's be honest, Ramirez and Reyes are on a planet of their own with shortstops. If Rollins can get back to 2007, he will be joining their ranks. But after those guys, you can afford to wait. Players like Yunel Escobar, Ryan Theriot, and don't scoff, but Edgar Renteria, can be of valuable service at the end of the draft. Even though Renteria has lost a step, it is no surprise that he is a much better player in the NL.

3rd Basemen:

Very similar in terms of gettin production late in the draft, you will have to focus on the weaknesses of your team. 20-25 HR potential players include: Joe Crede, Jorge Cantu, Edwin Encarnacion, and a possibly healthy Troy Glaus. If you're looking for steals, it is best to look elsewhere from these bashers.

Outfielders:

Don't count out forgotten players like Eric Byrnes, Hideki Matsui and Jeff Francouer. If given an opportunity, all three of these guys could shine like they used to in fantasy leagues all around. There are so many talented outfielders that many get lost in the mix, don't forget that each of these guys have ceilings higher than many ranked ahead of them.

Starting Pitchers:

I know I've mentioned starting pitchers to target late in drafts in a previous post. Reports out of A's camp say that Trevor Cahill might capture the 5th spot in that rotation. If that is the case, this talented stud could be on the fast track to fantasy magazines. Keep track of him throughout Spring Training. Ubaldo Jimenez had an amazing WBC, and can definitely be relevant in fantasy talks.

Any pitchers worth drafting late are probably also worth picking up in the first few weeks of the season. Don't put too much into pitchers doing great or struggling in Spring Training. Keep early tabs on starters through their first round or two of the season and pick them up accordingly.

It is important to notice that you don't have to reach for catchers early if a run starts on them. You should be the person dictating the pace of your draft, not somebody else. Don't reach for players unless they are a must-have for your roster. There are comparable players at every position, you just need to stay ahead of the curve. Don't be afraid to take a risk, because it is known that there are valuable commodities on your waiver wire at every turn. How many people drafted Ryan Ludwick last season?

Until next time,
Peace, Love, and Fantasy

Pick 'Em

McCann vs. Martin vs. Mauer:  Options of this sort come down to extreme preference.  Questions like these are the exact reason why I'm going to focus on the much tougher decisions in fantasy baseball: Who should be your last few picks in a draft?  McCann has the best power potential, Martin has the best stolen base number, and Mauer has the best batting average.  Depending on which you like and what you need will be how you make your decisions.  My pick is McCann because of his 3-4 category production, but nonetheless let's focus on the task at hand.

Catchers

Chris Iannetta vs. Ryan Doumit:  The differences between the two are power and average.  Iannetta is superior in the home run category while Doumit has the upper hand in average.  My thought is, in the bandbox that Iannetta plays in, he will trump Doumit in 3 out of the 5 categories, and is enough to give him the boost ahead of Doumit.  The 15 or 20 points in average that Doumit gives you will typically not make or break you, especially in a Rotisserie league.

1st Basemen

Conor Jackson vs. James Loney:  Besides the fact that Jackson also plays the OF position, I think that Jackson will have a far greater year in production.  These guys are typically ranked around the same, but I think Jackson has the better upside of the two picks.  It's not to say that I dislike Loney, but these NL West foes are both young up-and-comers at their respective positions.  As of today, I take Jackson about a round ahead of where Loney is going.

Shortstops

J.J. Hardy vs. Michael Young vs. Jhonny Peralta vs. Miguel Tejada:  Around fantasy circles Michael Young is always the first pick out of these guys, but why?  He does everything well and nothing spectacular.  Why not make your life easier as a fantasy manager and draft a guy who has the potential to hit 30 jacks in a given season?  J.J. Hardy is my pick out of these four to have the best fantasy season, with a very young and solid lineup, expect his numbers to be around .280 with 30 jacks and 85 RBI.  Rank:  Hardy, Peralta, Young, Tejada.  Unless you know you will be deficient in batting average (see: Dunn, Adam; Reynolds, Mark; Young, Chris B.), Young is probably not the best pick out of these four shortstops; although he will give you your best shot at a .300 average and 200 hits.

Outfielders

Torii Hunter vs. Raul Ibanez:  Why do people have the obsession with believing Torii Hunter is a fantasy stud?  In actuality, this is a player I don't want to touch with a 10-foot pole.  Unless robbing Barry Bonds in an All-Star game is one of your categories, Raul Ibanez is better at 4 of 5 categories.  While he may not be very flashy (or flashy at all), he is the definition of consistency, and falls into a perfect situation with a great lineup surrounding him and a great park to hit in.  You can find those 12 stolen bases that Hunter will beat Ibanez in somewhere else, just draft Martin over Mauer.  But with your pick if you're deciding between the two, take the former Royal and Mariner.

I hope this will answer a few of your most important questions relating to the wide world of fantasy baseball.

Until next time,

Peace, Love, and Fantasy

Not So Primetime

As I've mentioned before, it is easy to pick Lincecum, Webb, Sabathia and Santana.  What makes a great fantasy manager is the ability to make great picks late in drafts and through free agency.

Here are some names of mid-to-late round picks that will benefit you in 2009:

Josh Johnson, FLA: Although many people have heard of him and know what he did in his rookie campaign, this is a guy that I would target on all fantasy rosters.  He is a huge strikeout pitcher and since coming back from his injury in mid-2008 did nothing but impress.  Probably going around 14-16th in most drafts, he is a guy who can bring as much value as a #2 pitcher on a fantasy squad.  Think: A poor man's John Lackey.

Mike Pelfrey, NYM: Not exactly a forgotten commodity around fantasy leagues, but this 25-year-old on an offensive juggernaut is going to bring you between 13-15 wins and a mid-3 ERA.  In the middle to late rounds, you can do worse.  Think: Chien-Ming Wang.

Jonathan Sanchez, SF:  Interested in a strikeout per inning and someone who pitches in a park as big as SBC?  Jonathan Sanchez is your man.  Although the Giants won't give the run production that Pelfrey will get, they may not need to when Sanchez is on his game.  Think: Oliver Perez.  Really high-ceiling, but the ability to be as inconsistent as any.  This may be the year that Sanchez puts it together.

Other players to watch out for:

Brandon Morrow, SEA;  Max Scherzer, ARI;  Fausto Carmona, CLE;  Armando Galarraga, DET;  Chris Young, SD;  Kevin Millwood, TEX.

Getcha Popcorn Ready

It's never too early to look ahead towards next football season. With all the Terrell Owens news the past two days, it got me thinking about why all teams but the Raiders and 49ers have declared non-interest in signing TO. Sure, he's a tremendous headache, but he's an even more tremendous redzone target. I personally think a trip back to San Francisco could be the perfect fit for TO, primarily because of the way that head coach Mike Singletary handles his team. Remember last year that Singletary sent one of his stars, tight end Vernon Davis, to the locker room in the middle of the game for his complaining. If Owens makes his way back to the Niners, expect Singletary to lay down the law and keep TO on a short leash. Singletary will not hesistate to bench the star at the slightest distraction. There's no denying that Owens is an elite wide receiver in the league, specifically because of his ability to find the endzone. For fantasy purposes, finding a wide receiver that can score double digit touchdowns in a season is hard to come by. In leagues that award 6 points for receiving touchdowns, getting an elite wideout with a nose for the endzone is even more important. My top wideouts in terms of touchdowns scored for 2009 (receptions and yardage not considered):

1.) Larry Fitzgerald- The most dominant postseason for a wideout in NFL history. With Warner returning to the Cards, there's no reason that Fitz shouldn't find the endzone in nearly every contest. The status of Anquan Boldin certainly will affect Fitz' production, but even if Boldin departs, Steve Breaston is talented enough to keep some attention off of Fitz. Prediction: 17 TDs.

2.) Calvin Johnson- If there was one word to describe the potential that Johnson has going into his third season in the NFL (typically a wideout's breakout season) it would be "terrifying." Johnson found the endzone 12 times last season, but that doesn't even describe how amazing his season was. The Lions were the worst team in the history of the NFL, had absolutely nothing at the quarterback position, and Johnson was double-teamed every play from scrimmage and occasionally triple-teamed. Now, Johnson inherits the cannon attached to the body of rookie Matthew Stafford. Assuming Stafford lives up to even half the hype of his arm, the Lions and Johnson have nowhere to go but up. Prediction: 16 TDs

3.) Randy Moss- Assuming Tom Brady's return goes as planned, there's no reason to think that Moss won't put up ridiculous touchdown numbers next season. After all, the Brady/Moss combination was the highest single-season scoring duo in NFL history just a season ago. However, Moss is a little bit older and teams have made stopping him the first priority on defense. Remember that Moss didn't have nearly the success in the post-season 2 years ago that he did during the regular season once opponents put all the focus on him. Prediction: 14 TDs.

4.) Andre Johnson- Perhaps the most talented wide receiver in the NFL, Johnson hasn't put up the touchdown numbers he is capable of primarily due to injuries and a less-than-stellar offense. But the Texans' offense is looking up with the solid play of Matt Schaub and rising star Steve Slaton. If the Texans are able to find a way to keep teams from double-teaming Johnson every play, it's likely that Johnson has a career year. Prediction: 13 TDs.

5.) Anquan Boldin- This is assuming he re-signs with the Cardinals and their high-flying offense. With Fitzgerald's ridiculous post-season play, people seem to have forgotten that Boldin was the better receiver for the first 12 games of the regular season before he was sidelined and slowed by injuries. Had Boldin stayed healthy, he may have put up around 15 regular season touchdowns. He has a nose for the endzone and is one of the hardest receivers to bring down after the catch in the NFL. Prediction: 11 TDs.

6.) Terrell Owens- No idea where he will end up, but his athletic ability is too good to keep him off of this list. Assuming he doesn't get benched or suspended for being a liability to his team, he will find the endzone often. He has too many touchdown celebrations prepared not to. If he signs with one of the Bay Area teams, he will be stuck with a young quarterback. Whether it be Jamarcus Russell in Oakland or Shaun Hill/Mark Sanchez in San Francisco, a big reliable target like TO is a nice go-to-guy to have. Both teams have strong running games, so it will be hard to stack everyone against Owens. In San Francisco, the presence of Vernon Davis should keep safeties from over-playing to Owens' side. Prediction: 10 TDs

Next best: Greg Jennings, Steve Smith, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Brandon Marshall

The defending champ,
Chinn

The First is Easy and the Second May be Too Late

It's easy for fantasy baseballers (does that work?) to know who to pick in the first round.  After the surefire five, you're looking at the realm of Cabrera (a no-brainer to me at 6 if available), Sizemore, Kinsler, Braun, Utley, Teixiera, and Holliday/Hamilton.  I think Hamilton is good value towards the end of the first round, but don't expect the production that he had in the first half of 2008.

In the second round you're planning on taking more risks.  Check for the higher upside players. It's not that a player like Ichiro is bad value here, it's just a safe bet.  After a monstrous postseason, I'm expecting a powerful year out of B.J. Upton.  Another Ray (it's so hard not to put Devil in front) who is going to have a bounce back year is Carl Crawford.  I wouldn't want to be the player stuck with Longoria though.  He struggled in the Series, and I think his production would better suit him in the 4th or 5th rounds, not mid-2nd.  After those high upside guys, there is not much more for early in the 2nd, and Beltran, Morneau, Berkman, and Manny should all be somewhat involved in the conversation following.

My phenomenal pick in rounds 2-3 is gonna be Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers.  If you haven't seen this kid play, well....just watch him.  He kind of reminds me of a Brandon Jacobs baseball player. 6'2", 230 built like a linebacker who runs like a runningback.  I'm expecting a .300-100-25-110-35 season.  

All I'm saying, if you are scrounging around for a pick that is highly uninteresting (Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios, Vladdy), why not take a guy that could be a 30-30 player this year late in the 2nd round and get a Grady Sizemore value off your investment. 

Until next time,

Peace, Love, and Fantasy

Left Side, Strong Side

The city of New York is spoiled in getting to watch 2 of the best left-sides of the infield in the major leagues. While it is hard to argue that a combination of Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez is not the best in the majors, you don't have to look farther than across town to find the duo that is their superior. Mets' fans are more than fortunate to have speedster Jose Reyes, 25, at shortstop while five-tool slugger David Wright, 26, holds down the hot corner next to him. Both players are approaching the prime years of their careers and it's scary to think what the Mets offense could do if both get hot at the same time. Consider that 2 guys named Carlos (Delgado and Beltran) hit behind them and the Mets will be a pitcher's nightmare.

At the top of fantasy drafts for 2009, Hanley Ramirez and Albert Pujols will go 1 and 2, but after that it gets interesting. Rodriguez's latest hip injury needs to be monitored and if he is forced to miss some time, the third player drafted in fantasy is going to be a Met. But who do you take when it comes down to Wright and Reyes?

When it comes to runs scored, it's virtually a wash. Reyes can manufacture runs all by himself, but Wright preceeds RBI machines Delgado and Beltran in the lineup. Wright's power numbers were career highs last year as he hit 33 dingers and drove in 124 runs. Reyes hit 16 homeruns with 68 RBIs, but has been destroying the ball this spring. Owners can expect his '09 numbers to be more like his '07 year with upwards of 20 homers and around 85 RBIs. Those power numbers, combined with the 65 stolen bases he has averaged the past 4 years, make Reyes very hard to pass up. However David Wright is no slug, as he swiped 34 bags out of 39 attempts in '07. His stolen base % has actually been better than Reyes' the past 2 years. Wright's batting average has consistently been about 20 points higher than Reyes' as well. If you're looking to guarantee your team some speed, it's hard not to grab Reyes in the third draft spot. Just make sure to complement this pick with a power hitter in the second round with a guy like Josh Hamilton, Ryan Howard, or Prince Fielder. But I think the better fantasy player will be Wright, especially in leagues that count caught stealing as a catagory. Wright has already replaced ARod as the league's best third basemen in many people's eyes and he's only getting better. He delivers in every catagory and has been nothing but consistent. Drafting Wright and then grabbing another 5 tool player like Matt Holiday in the 2nd round will be more than enough stolen bases to make up for passing up Reyes. Grabbing an all-around hitter like Wright also enables an owner to go for a top-5 starting pitcher late in the 2nd round because you wouldn't be committed to making up for a lack of power like you would with drafting Reyes. It's also much easier to pick up a guy that steals 30 bases in the middle-to-later rounds of the draft than it is to find a guy that hits 30 homers.

So the better fantasy option of the Mets' stellar left side? You can't go wrong with Wright.

Keep it classy,
Chinn

Early 2009 Sleeper Picks

Fantasy Sleepers:

Ryan Spilborghs, CF, Colorado Rockies.

Seeing as he will be given the starting role outright, it would not be inconceivable to see a .295 average along with a 20 home run and 15 stolen base campaign. Obviously runs and RBI have more to deal with the team than the player, and I'm not so sure the Rockies are going to have the explosive offense a la Bichette, Burks, Walker, Galarraga and Castilla. Whether or not, this is a consistent .300 hitter throughout professional baseball, and he plays 81 games within the confines of the one and only, Coors Field.


Delmon Young, RF, Minnesota Twins.

This bat-throwing extraordinaire is not an unknown commodity around fantasy circles. In 2007 he posted career-highs of 13 jacks and 93 RBI. Only two years removed from these numbers, and a slightly disappointing first year in Minnesota, expect him to turn it around across the board. A .300 average, 20 homeruns, 100 RBI, and 18-22 steals. This is a guy that I would love to draft in the 8th-10th rounds of any draft. To put the icing on the cake, he will also be top 5 in AL outfielder assists.

Until next time,
Peace, Love, and Fantasy

Manny being Manny

Well Manny just signed with the Dodgers which was a surprise to absolutely nobody. But what does it do for fantasy implications?

Manny now goes into the heart of a lineup involving Rafael Furcal, Russell Martin, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier and James Loney. I still do not understand how people don't view him as a top 5 outfielder based on the team and recent performances.

I would not be surprised to see a .325 avg, with 100 runs, 38 homeruns, and around 120+ RBI's.  If you're not in a keeper league, he should be drafted somewhere in the late 2nd round.  After Sizemore and Braun, it would not be a stretch to grab the man that will guarantee you a solid performance.

Until next time,

Peace, Love, and Fantasy

The First of Many

We'd like to welcome all of you to our Fantasy Freestylin' blog.  We plan on providing some expert analysis to some of the important questions and concerns of fantasy sports.

Baseball season is just around the corner, and we have been diligently reading and watching to find out about baseball news for the fantasy athlete.

I'm going to start this post off with a valuable question in fantasy drafts. Lincecum or Santana?

Biases aside, Lincecum is hands down the #1 starting pitcher pick.  I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Santana will begin the season slightly dinged up (already dealing with an elbow issue), and he will not be as reliable the fantasy ace that he has been in years past.  It is hard to predict what kind of stats "The Freak" will have coming off his CY Young season.  My fearless prediction will be 16-4, 273 K's, 2.62 ERA, and a 1.12 WHIP. 

I have seen Santana go higher than Lincecum consistently, and I would advise against it. Santana will have a top 5 season from a starting pitcher, but suffice to say, will play a second fiddle to Lincecum's season.  The stars are aligned for another spectacular year from "The Freak".

Until next time,

Peace, Love, and Fantasy